Uncertainty remains about what the US aims to achieve in a war with Iran. Donald Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran just hours before the scheduled deadline on April 21st. This is the second time this month that Trump has announced a ceasefire. Previously, he announced a 15-day ceasefire just 90 minutes before the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz on April 7th, 2025.
Whatever the rationale behind the US ceasefire announcement, one thing is clear: Trump wants an end to this war as soon as possible, and on his own terms. Trump’s stance has raised questions about whether the US has realized that defeating Iran militarily is difficult. Is this because the US lacks sufficient resources to fight a protracted war with Iran? To answer these questions, it’s important to understand two key issues: the US and Israel’s war capabilities and their options for future military operations.
In the current situation, if Iran agrees to unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, the US will immediately consider it a victory and withdraw from the war. The US is finding it difficult to procure the necessary weapons for a protracted war. The US is currently looking for an opportunity to declare victory and exit the war.
The type of war the US is fighting in Iran requires two main types of weapons. The first is a weapon capable of remote attack, including aircraft, ships, artillery, and missile systems. Even before the ceasefire came into effect on April 7th, the US had struck approximately 13,000 targets in the first 39 days. The second category is air defense systems, which include Patriot missiles and the THAAD defense system.
According to a CNN report, half of the US’s major missile stockpile has been depleted in the war with Iran. Replacing these systems will take three to five years, even though contracts have already been signed to increase production. The US has also used up 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles, 50% of its THAAD interceptors, approximately 50% of its Patriot Air Defense System, and approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile. The US has also used up 20% of its long-range JASSM and SM-3/SM-6 missiles.
The first weapon used by the US to launch a ground attack is the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLM). This is a long-range missile launched from the sea against ground targets. According to reports, the US Navy has used over 1,000 TLMs in the Iran war so far. Scheduled production of TLMs in 2026 is far below supply requirements. Japan has reportedly been told that the Iran war may delay the delivery of its 400 Tomahawk missiles.
The success of the US and Israeli military campaign depends not only on destroying Iran’s military and economic capabilities, but also on the ability to intercept and destroy missiles launched by Iran. Previously, it was expected that the ballistic missile threat from Iran would be neutralized in two phases. The first involves the Patriot missile defense system, which is used to intercept and target aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
The Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile, equipped with advanced rocket and guidance technology, is being used in the war. For any missile launched from Iran, two to four interceptors are deployed. As the war has escalated, Iran has deployed advanced missiles with hypersonic glide technology, as well as cluster bombs, which means that a greater number of Patriot missiles than usual have to be fired to intercept incoming missiles. As a result, most US bases in the Gulf (except the United Arab Emirates) have run out of interceptors.
The US produces only about 100 such missiles each year. This poses a significant challenge for the US in continuing the war. It is also being reported that the US is considering transferring some Patriot missiles from Japan and South Korea to bolster its stockpile, which could pose a new challenge for the US in the Indo-Pacific region.
Furthermore, the US THAAD defense system has a greater range than the Patriot missile. Globally, there are only eight THAAD batteries. Two of these are in the Indo-Pacific region, and two are in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The US has already used up nearly all of its THAAD missiles in the region. A shortage could pose a significant threat to US and Israeli air defenses.
Due to dwindling reserves and lack of support domestically, the US is facing difficult choices in the war. Therefore, it is not surprising that President Trump has twice declared a unilateral ceasefire. The retirement of a large number of high-ranking officials in the US is also a clear indication of the significant gap between the Pentagon’s vision and the political leadership’s goals. On the other hand, Iran, sensing victory, is unwilling to back down.