Another major upheaval has occurred in Maharashtra politics. According to sources, six Lok Sabha MPs from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) have left the party and formed a separate faction. They will join Eknath Shinde’s faction on June 19th, the Shiv Sena’s 60th foundation day. This split occurred as part of the “Operation Tiger” campaign, which the Shinde faction has been pursuing for several days. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla has recognized the separate faction of these six MPs. This move is set to significantly benefit the ruling NDA in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. Let’s understand the full mathematics and political implications of this.
Before this split, the NDA had 293 seats in the Lok Sabha. Earlier, 20 rebel Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs had decided to support the NDA, increasing its tally to 313. Now, with the addition of six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, the NDA’s tally will reach 319.
However, a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha (required for constitutional amendment) requires 363 seats. With 319 seats, the NDA is still 44 seats short of this figure. However, this number will give the NDA a significantly stronger position in Parliament and help it pass important legislation.
Regarding the Rajya Sabha, the NDA is already very close to achieving a two-thirds majority. Recently, 24 out of 27 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states were elected unopposed, giving the NDA a significant advantage. The June 18 elections for 26 seats across 12 states, combined with the split in the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT), are expected to further strengthen the NDA’s position in the Rajya Sabha. Securing a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha is crucial for the NDA, as it will eliminate its dependence on the opposition on key issues such as constitutional amendments.
However, a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha (required for constitutional amendments) requires 363 seats. With 319 seats, the NDA still falls 44 seats short of this figure. However, this number will give the NDA a significantly stronger position in Parliament and help it pass important legislation.
Regarding the Rajya Sabha, the NDA is already very close to achieving a two-thirds majority. Recently, 24 out of 27 Rajya Sabha seats across 10 states were elected unopposed, giving the NDA a significant advantage. The June 18 elections for 26 seats in 12 states, along with the split in the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT), are expected to further strengthen the NDA’s position in the Rajya Sabha. Securing a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha is crucial for the NDA, as it will eliminate its dependence on the opposition on key issues such as constitutional amendments.
With the addition of these six MPs, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena’s number of MPs in the Lok Sabha will increase from 7 to 13. This will make the Shinde faction the third-largest party within the NDA. Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray will now have only three MPs in the Lok Sabha.
This split has four major political advantages:
Easy to amend the Constitution: With the NDA’s increased numbers in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, it will be easier for the government to pass constitutional amendment bills like the Delimitation Bill. The TMC played a key role in defeating the Delimitation Bill earlier this year.
Weakening of the Opposition: This split is a major blow to the opposition alliance, the India Bloc. The opposition in Maharashtra will be weakened, and the NDA will gain political strength in the state.
Avoiding legal complications: Under the Anti-Defection Law (10th Schedule), if two-thirds of a party’s MPs break away, they cannot be disqualified. The separation of six (two-thirds) of the nine Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs has saved these MPs from disqualification. Therefore, they formed a separate faction and sought recognition from the Speaker.
The rise of the Shinde faction: With this split, Eknath Shinde has once again proven his status as a major force in Maharashtra politics. The inclusion of these MPs on the Shiv Sena’s 60th foundation day is a major victory for Shinde.
Reflecting on the entire Shiv Sena (UBT) split, these six MPs arrived in Delhi on a chartered plane on Tuesday night and met with Om Birla and submitted a letter to form a separate faction. The Speaker granted recognition to the faction. These MPs also met with Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde, in Delhi. Meanwhile, the Uddhav Thackeray faction issued a whip, summoning these MPs to a meeting, and appealed to the Speaker not to recognize any rebel faction, but their appeal failed.
The joining of six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs to the Shinde faction is a major political victory for the NDA. Reaching 319 in the Lok Sabha will help the government pass important bills. The NDA has also come close to a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha. This split has weakened the opposition India Alliance and strengthened Eknath Shinde’s political position. It remains to be seen how Uddhav Thackeray recovers from this major setback and whether the NDA is able to add more parties to its fold in the coming days.