Mobilization has intensified for the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. Elections for the 10 Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for October 16th. Based on the current strength in the Assembly, the BJP is almost certain to win seven seats and the Samajwadi Party two. However, one seat is facing a dilemma. The Samajwadi Party will easily win two seats and has decided to field a candidate for the third. Meanwhile, the BJP is completely dependent on Rajbhar’s party to win the eighth seat.
The 403-seat UP Assembly currently has 397 MLAs, with six seats vacant. The NDA has 288 MLAs, including 255 from the BJP, 14 from the Apna Dal (Sonelal), 9 from the Rashtriya Lok Dal, 6 from the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), and 5 from the Nishad Party.
Meanwhile, the SP-Congress alliance has 103 MLAs, including 101 from the SP, two from the Jansatta Dal (Democratic) and three independent MLAs.
Among these three independent MLAs is Manoj Kumar Pandey, the Food Minister of the Uttar Pradesh government. All three MLAs won the elections on SP tickets, but their distance from the party increased during the Rajya Sabha elections.
Regarding the Rajya Sabha mathematics, a total of 37 MLAs’ votes are required to win a Rajya Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh. Thus, the BJP will win seven of its MPs with 259 votes, while the SP will easily win two MPs with the votes of 74 MLAs.
The BJP and SP are trying their best in the battle for the 10th seat.
The NDA has 255 MLAs, 13 from the Apna Dal, 9 from the RLD, 6 from the Subhaspa, and 5 from the Nishad Party, giving it a total of 288 MLAs. Adding Raja Bhaiya’s two MLAs and three independents, this number comes to 293.
A total of 37 x 8 = 296 is required to win the eighth MP. This means the BJP is three votes short.
But will the Subhaspa spoil the game?
A major complication here is that four Subhaspa MLAs openly carry the SP flag.
Rakesh Pratap Singh, Abhay Singh, and Manoj Pandey are standing in favor of the BJP as independents. Vinod Chaturvedi, Rakesh Pandey, and Ashutosh Maurya voted for the BJP candidate. All three are still SP members.
In such a situation, if these three go in favor of the BJP this time too, the SP will need 7 votes, and the BJP’s need will be reduced to 3 MLAs.
This means that without manipulation, neither the BJP nor the SP can win its eighth MP. It remains to be seen who succeeds in breaking whom.
Apart from Om Prakash Rajbhar and Bediram, no one in the Subhaspa is with the Subhaspa. These include Abbas Ansari, Jagdish Narayan, Dudhram, and Hansuram. This means that if these MLAs do not vote for the BJP, the BJP’s shortfall will be reduced to 7.
On the other hand, the SP has 101 MLAs of its own. If you add two Congress MLAs and four Subhaspa MLAs, the SP has a total of 107 votes. To win three MPs, the SP needs a total of 111 MLAs. This means the SP’s shortfall is 4.
The SP’s problem is that in the last Rajya Sabha elections, a total of 7 of its MLAs rebelled. Of these, Pooja Pal has officially joined the BJP.
Rakesh Pratap Singh, Abhay Singh, and Manoj Pandey are contesting as independents for the BJP. Vinod Chaturvedi, Rakesh Pandey, and Ashutosh Maurya voted for the BJP candidate; all three are still SP members.
In such a situation, if these three votes go in favor of the BJP this time too, the SP will need 7 votes, and the BJP will need only 3 MLAs.
This means that without manipulation, neither the BJP nor the SP can win its eighth MP. So, it remains to be seen who succeeds in breaking whom.