The upcoming elections for five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar on March 16th will prove crucial in many ways. At a glance, in the current scenario, candidates must have the support of 41 MLAs to win a single Rajya Sabha seat in Bihar. In this context, the NDA, which has the support of 202 MLAs, can win four seats on its own, but will have to make significant efforts to win the fifth seat. It may be possible to achieve this by wooing three opposition MLAs. If it succeeds in doing so, it will be considered a very favorable situation for the BJP in terms of the future politics of Bihar. It can then be assumed that Nitish Kumar has completely surrendered to the BJP, and for the first time since the BJP’s inception in 1980, a government will be formed in Bihar under the leadership of a BJP Chief Minister. Previously, the Bharatiya Janata Party, despite being the largest political party in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, was forced to form a government under Nitish Kumar’s leadership due to Nitish Kumar’s machinations on several occasions.
If the NDA wins all five seats in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Bihar, a major consequence will be the weakening of the opposition alliance. The Bharatiya Janata Party has money and the power to harass anyone in the form of the ED, CBI, and Income Tax. This is easily accomplished, as even a whip issued by a political party regarding Rajya Sabha elections cannot adversely affect MLAs who cross-vote. While the party may impose party-level penalties upon the individual, their Assembly membership will remain intact.
A major advantage for the BJP if the NDA wins all five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar is that Nitish Kumar will now be somewhat apprehensive. If the BJP can use its money and power to break members of the opposition alliance and bring them to its side, it wouldn’t be surprising if it makes a similar move against the JDU. When Nitish Kumar previously left the BJP and joined the opposition Grand Alliance, he had accused the BJP of trying to break his party and join its own. And if the BJP makes such a move against the JDU now, the political future of his son, Nishant Kumar, could also be ruined.
However, despite these favorable circumstances for the BJP, it’s not clear that Nitish Kumar cannot take any action that would thwart the BJP’s plans. And this will be reflected in this Rajya Sabha election itself. In this election, if Nitish Kumar, in addition to the 41 MLAs required for his victory, gets his 44 MLAs to vote for the RJD candidate, the RJD candidate will win, and the NDA will have to settle for only three seats, minus the JDU. However, this situation will pose a major crisis for Nitish Kumar in the future. The election victory of Upendra Kushwaha of the RLSM, who is considered a supporter of Nitish Kumar, could be in doubt. It is speculated that if Nitish Kumar turns around and seeks to form an opposition coalition government, he could gain the support of Upendra Kushwaha’s party, the RLSM. This advantage will not accrue to Nitish Kumar if he resorts to manipulation in the Rajya Sabha elections. This will prove to be a major obstacle to Nitish Kumar’s subsequent attempts to form an opposition coalition government by winning the Rajya Sabha elections. If Nitish Kumar wins the Rajya Sabha elections and wishes to form a government with an opposition coalition, the combined total of JDU’s 85 MLAs plus the Grand Alliance’s 35 will be 120, falling just two short of the magic number of 122 needed to form a government. This could easily be achieved with the support of Upendra Kushwaha’s party, but only if Nitish Kumar helps him win the Rajya Sabha elections.
There are many other possibilities and ironies associated with this Rajya Sabha election, which will be reflected after tomorrow’s Rajya Sabha results are announced.