The Bharatiya Janata Party is currently waging a major campaign to gain advantage by splitting opposition parties’ MPs and MLAs into its own party. The BJP’s attempt to split opposition Lok Sabha members is understandable, as it will position itself to establish a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own. Currently, with only 240 MPs, it is dependent on the JDU and Telugu Desam Party for support. By splitting opposition Lok Sabha members, it will be free from any pressure from the JDU and Telugu Desam Party and be able to pass its desired bills in the Lok Sabha. The same can be said for the Rajya Sabha. However, despite being in power, it will not achieve anything by splitting TMC MLAs in West Bengal. Despite this, if the BJP is poaching MLAs here, it may be trying to expand its party’s political presence in various regions, weakening opposition political parties, and strengthening its position in the upcoming elections. The BJP is quietly carrying out this campaign everywhere.
Despite its best efforts, the BJP has been unable to form either its own or its coalition government in Jharkhand since Hemant Soren formed the government in Jharkhand under the UPA or the India Alliance. Consequently, it is working to weaken the India Alliance in Jharkhand. It even achieved some success in this regard in the recent Rajya Sabha elections. The India Alliance had a sufficient majority of 56 to elect two Rajya Sabha members. However, the BJP made inroads into the India Alliance’s MLAs. Despite the BJP or NDA having only 24 MLAs, BJP-backed candidate Parimal Nathwani managed to win a Rajya Sabha seat. Despite this overwhelming majority, the India Alliance was able to secure the victory of only one Rajya Sabha candidate, Baijnath Ram of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. The other India Alliance candidate, Pranav Jha of the Congress, failed to win the election due to betrayal by some of its own alliance leaders.
A blame game has begun within the India Alliance over the failure of Congress candidate Pranav Jha in the Rajya Sabha elections. Given its position, the Congress is not blaming the JMM, but is blaming the CPI(ML) and RJD for the defeat. In response, the CPI(ML) and RJD are criticizing the Congress, saying that while it followed the alliance principles, the flaw lies within the Congress itself. It is unable to manage its own affairs.
Following Parimal Nathwani’s victory as a Rajya Sabha member, the BJP may now be working to weaken the India Alliance here as well, which could soon lead to a major political shift.
From the BJP’s perspective,
By integrating the four MLAs who cross-voted into its party, the BJP could have a majority sufficient to gain power. Even if the BJP wins over all 16 Congress members, the NDA’s total number of MLAs will still reach 40, one short of the magic number required to form a government. Furthermore, such a significant split is unlikely in Jharkhand, given the coalition’s government.
As a second experiment, the BJP could follow the example of Maharashtra and Bihar in Jharkhand. First, it could become the younger brother of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), removing Hemant Soren from the All India Alliance (AIADMK) and offering him the post of Chief Minister under the NDA alliance. Then, when the opportunity arises, it could try to become the older brother by removing Hemant Soren from the Chief Minister’s post and installing a leader from its own party. The JMM has previously formed a coalition government with the BJP, but then it played the role of the younger brother. Therefore, Hemant Soren has a long history of being associated with the BJP. Furthermore, the examples of the events in Maharashtra and Bihar are also before him. Perhaps this is why, even when such a wave of violence erupted in the past, Hemant Soren simply let it pass and didn’t react.
Apart from the BJP, JDU’s Saryu Rai, who was formerly a member of the BJP and who left the party after a falling out with former Chief Minister Raghuvar Das and is currently a JDU MLA, has also begun wooing Hemant Soren. In a proposal sent to Hemant Soren, he stated that if Hemant Soren wishes, he can form a non-Congress, non-BJP government. This way, Soren won’t have to face pressure from a major party like the Congress and won’t fear the BJP’s usurpation tactics. Regarding the magic number of 41 required for majority to form the government of this new alliance, Saryu Rai said that with 34 MLAs of JMM, two of CPI(ML) and four of RJD, the total number of MLAs reaches 40 and with the support of him i.e. Saryu Rai, the total number of MLAs becomes 41 and in this way the magic number required for majority can be achieved.
After BJP candidate Parimal Nathwani was elected to the Rajya Sabha despite lacking the required majority, the India Alliance must be worried that the BJP might pull off a major coup. Consequently, the results of this Rajya Sabha election have brought some, if not significant, instability to Jharkhand politics. The extent to which this will be reaped will only be known in a few days.