After Nitish Kumar, the NDA’s Chief Minister in Bihar is almost certain to be from the BJP camp. If anything remains to be seen in this matter, it is for a BJP leader to be sworn in as the Chief Minister of Bihar under the NDA.
Just as the then-National President of the Congress, Devkant Barua, once said about the Congress, “Indira is Congress and Congress is Indira,” a similar situation appears to be happening between the BJP and the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah. I use the word “appear” because the BJP is aware of the negative impact Devkant Barua’s statement had on the Congress in the upcoming elections. Therefore, BJP leaders do not say such things, but rather, the Modi-Shah duo demonstrates it by doing it, and at least for now, there is no BJP leader to oppose their actions. In the past, when the Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Advani duo held such sway, even a BJP leader could oppose the decisions made by these two party top leaders. A prime example of this was Uma Bharti, who openly challenged the then BJP National President Advani during a live demonstration of the BJP’s party organization. Today, no BJP leader has the courage to do so. After the Rajasthan elections, Vasundhara Raje Scindia, who, before surrendering, tried to become the Chief Minister of Rajasthan against the wishes of PM Modi and Narendra Shah, was so thoroughly defeated by the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah that not only did she not win the Rajasthan Chief Minister’s post, but today she holds no significant position within the BJP. However, in Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan didn’t try too hard to show his arrogance. While the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah didn’t make him the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, they did give him a ministerial position in the central government, ensuring that he would continue to be subservient to the duo.
It is certain that after Nitish Kumar resigns as Chief Minister of Bihar, the BJP’s Chief Minister will be chosen by the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah, who are currently busy with the upcoming assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry. People generally assume that they will only select the Chief Minister of Bihar after these elections are over. However, this is not the case; the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah are in election mode 24/7. Therefore, when Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar steps down as Chief Minister on April 10th to become a member of the Rajya Sabha, PM Modi and Narendra Shah will immediately announce the name of the BJP’s new Chief Minister.
The decision of the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah is surprising. This decision is surprising because, while people typically consider only the circumstances of Bihar as the Chief Minister of Bihar, the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah, while deciding on the Chief Minister of Bihar, are also keeping an eye on the assembly elections currently underway in five states, as well as the Lok Sabha elections to be held in 2028, and the assembly elections in various states, including Uttar Pradesh, before that. Furthermore, this duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah intends to weaken not only the strength of the opposition alliance but also the political parties within their own alliance, which could pose a threat to the BJP in the future.
To achieve this objective, the BJP is resorting to various forms of propaganda. It is putting forward several names like Samrat Chaudhary, Vijay Singh, Nityanand Rai as a promising candidate. Nitish Kumar is also working on a strategy to pressure the BJP by getting prominent political figures like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha to agree on Samrat Chaudhary’s name. But the BJP is unlikely to hand over the Bihar Chief Minister’s post to any of them. In any case, the BJP’s strategists, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, rarely consider the names that are being discussed, and after much deliberation, they ultimately come up with a candidate for Chief Minister that surprises everyone—the public, opposition political parties, and even their own constituents. But this time, it seems their decision is being leaked.
Among the names being discussed for the post of Chief Minister of Bihar, there is no Dalit person. However, according to internal BJP sources, BJP strategists, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, are working to garner a large vote bank under the guise of a Chief Minister, which will benefit the BJP not only in Bihar but also in other states outside Bihar. Consequently, the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah are discussing the name of the Chief Minister of Bihar with the goal of garnering Dalit votes. Approximately 17 percent of the Dalit vote was once the preserve of the Congress. Currently, Chief Minister and JDU leader Nitish Kumar holds a strong hold on this constituency. Furthermore, HAM Party leader and Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi also holds sway over this Dalit population. LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan also holds sway over these Dalit castes.
To date, a total of three Dalit leaders have become Chief Ministers in Bihar. Bhola Paswan was the only Dalit leader to hold the position three times. Ram Sundar Das and Jitan Ram Manjhi each held the position of Chief Minister. In such a situation, even by appointing a Dalit Chief Minister, the BJP will not be able to capitalize on the fact that it has appointed the first Dalit Chief Minister in Bihar. However, this will enable it to counter the opposition’s attack in the upcoming Assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections, claiming that none of its states have a Dalit Chief Minister. Furthermore, it will also weaken the grip of its alliance partners, which have a strong hold on these Dalits, and strengthen its own hold on them. Especially given the fact that Chirag Paswan is already staking his claim as the next Chief Minister of Bihar and has consistently pressured the BJP in various elections, securing more seats than the alliance’s mandate, the BJP can also use this Dalit Chief Minister to rein in Chirag Paswan. Currently, there is no Dalit Chief Minister in any BJP-ruled state in the country. Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta (Vaishya), Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha (Vaishya), Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath (Rajput), Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami (Rajput), Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma (Brahmin), Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis (Brahmin), Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma (Brahmin), Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel (Kurmi), Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini (Kushwaha), Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav (Yadav), Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Dev Sai (Adivasi), and Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Manjhi (Adivasi). Therefore, there is a growing consensus within the BJP that this time, as an experiment, a Dalit should be installed as Chief Minister.
Given all these scenarios, BJP strategists PM Modi and Amit Shah are certainly working on a plan to install a Dalit candidate as Chief Minister in Bihar. Sources have already revealed at least this much. The candidates may be surprising, as discussions are currently underway on two fronts. PM Modi and Amit Shah are weighing this on two parameters: Dalit and youth, and Dalit and female.
Among the names the Modi-Shah duo is considering for Dalit, youth, and female status, the prominent names are Janak Chamar and Guru Prakash, while Sangeeta Kumari is considered for Dalit and female status.
In Bihar, the PM Modi-Amit Shah duo is prioritizing the selection of a leader with a strong and committed party spirit, even in the above equation. In this context, young Dalit leader Guru Prakash fits the bill best. This is Soumya, a professor at Patna University and the son of Sanjay Paswan, who joined the BJP from the RSS era and had unwavering loyalty to the party.
This initiative by PM Modi and Amit Shah could prove to be a major masterstroke, both in Bihar and in other states and at the Centre. In such a situation, there is a risk of caste equations being unbalanced to some extent with other prominent figures in the Bihar BJP. However, the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah can only take a limited amount of risk in the selection of the Chief Minister of Bihar, as the Bihar Assembly elections are still five years away. In the meantime, PM Modi and Amit Shah will not only make every effort to balance this imbalance, but Guru Prakash will also strive to repay the trust reposed in him by PM Modi and Amit Shah by establishing a strong hold on Bihar politics through his efficiency.
Like Nitish Kumar, Guru Prakash also has a natural inclination to engage with all classes and castes. As a highly educated young Dalit leader, Guru Prakash’s acceptance not only dents the Dalit base of the opposition alliance but also effectively controls the bargaining power of allies like Chirag Paswan. The same criteria that led the BJP to appoint Nitin Naveen as national president make Guru Prakash’s appointment as chief minister a fitting fit.