After Nitish Kumar, it is almost certain that the NDA Chief Minister of Bihar will be from the BJP camp. All that remains for the final decision is for a BJP leader to be sworn in as the NDA Chief Minister.
To capture power in Bihar, the BJP is dipping deep in order to select its Chief Ministerial candidate. In this process of selecting a Chief Minister, the BJP is keeping an eye on the recent Assembly elections in five states, the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for 2028, and the Assembly elections in various states before that. Furthermore, it is considering reducing the strength of the opposition alliance as well as the political parties within its alliance, which could pose a threat to the BJP in the future.
To achieve this objective, the BJP is resorting to various forms of propaganda. It is projecting several names, such as Samrat Chaudhary, Vijay Singh, Nityanand Rai, as promising candidates. Nitish Kumar, along with prominent political figures like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha, are already working on a strategy to pressure the BJP by agreeing on the name of Samrat Chaudhary. However, the BJP is unlikely to hand over the post of Chief Minister of Bihar to any of them. In any case, the BJP’s strategists, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, rarely consider the names being discussed, and through their introspection, ultimately come up with a name for Chief Minister that surprises everyone, not just the public, but opposition political parties, and even their own allies.
None of the names being discussed for the post of Chief Minister of Bihar includes a Dalit. However, according to internal BJP sources, BJP strategists Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are trying to garner a large vote bank under the pretext of the Chief Ministership. They are considering the Dalit vote as a major target. Approximately 17 percent of Dalit votes were once the preserve of the Congress. Currently, current Chief Minister and JDU leader Nitish Kumar has a strong hold on this Dalit population. Furthermore, HAM Party leader and Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi also holds sway over this Dalit population. LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan also holds sway over these Dalit castes.
So far, a total of three Dalit leaders have become Chief Ministers in Bihar. Bhola Paswan was the only Dalit leader to hold the position three times. Ram Sundar Das and Jitan Ram Manjhi each held the position once. In such a situation, even by electing a Dalit Chief Minister, the BJP will not be able to capitalize on the fact that it has elected the first Dalit Chief Minister in Bihar. However, this will enable the BJP to counter the opposition’s claim in the upcoming Assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections that none of its states have a Dalit Chief Minister. Furthermore, it will also weaken the hold of its alliance partners, which have a strong hold on these Dalits, and strengthen its own hold on them. Especially considering the way Chirag Paswan is already staking his claim as the next Chief Minister of Bihar and has been pressuring the BJP in various elections and winning more seats than his coalition entitles, the BJP could also use its Dalit Chief Minister to rein in Chirag Paswan.
Currently, there are no Dalit Chief Ministers in any BJP-ruled state in the country. The Chief Ministers are Rekha Gupta (Vaishya) in Delhi, Manik Saha (Vaishya) in Tripura, Yogi Adityanath (Rajput) in Uttar Pradesh, Pushkar Singh Dhami (Rajput) in Uttarakhand, Bhajan Lal Sharma (Brahmin) in Rajasthan, Devendra Fadnavis (Brahmin) in Maharashtra, Himanta Biswa Sarma (Brahmin) in Assam, Bhupendra Patel (Kurmi) in Gujarat, Nayab Singh Saini (Kushwaha) in Haryana, Mohan Yadav (Yadav) in Madhya Pradesh, Vishnu Dev Sai (Adivasi) in Chhattisgarh, and Mohan Charan Manjhi (Adivasi) in Odisha. Therefore, a consensus is emerging within the BJP regarding Bihar that this time, as an experiment, a Dalit should be installed as the Chief Minister.
Considering all these scenarios, BJP strategists PM Modi and Amit Shah are undoubtedly working on a plan to install a Dalit face as the Chief Minister of Bihar. The face may be surprising. Now, PM Modi and Amit Shah can weigh this on two parameters: the first being Dalit and youth, and the second being Dalit and woman.
Among the names the BJP is considering as Dalit, youth, and woman, prominent names are Janak Chamar, Guru Prakash, and as a Dalit woman, Sangeeta Kumari.
The Bihar BJP may also put forward not only a Dalit but also a young Dalit leader, Guru Prakash. And this could prove to be a masterstroke for the BJP. According to them, other prominent faces in the Bihar BJP run the risk of upsetting caste equations to some extent, whereas Guru Prakash, like Nitish Kumar, has a natural tendency to engage with all classes and castes.
Guru Prakash’s acceptance as a highly educated young Dalit leader is a key factor, which will not only dent the Dalit base of the opposition alliance but also effectively control the bargaining power of allies like Chirag Paswan. The BJP’s appointment of Nitin Naveen as national president makes Guru Prakash’s appointment as Chief Minister apt.