Nitish Kumar is known as a flip-flopped Chief Minister. Each of his flip-flops has benefited him and his party significantly. Initially, despite his flip-flopping, he managed to retain his Chief Ministership. Now, he appears to be making another flip-flop. But this flip-flop is very different from his previous ones. In this flip-flop, he can’t even imagine remaining in the Chief Minister’s chair. If he succeeds in securing a prominent position in the government for his son Nishant Kumar, after recently inducting him into his party, the JDU, that would be a significant achievement. He would initially like to see his son Nishant Kumar succeed him as Chief Minister, but who cares about his preferences now? The Bharatiya Janata Party didn’t want him to succeed him as Chief Minister even after winning the elections, and the opposition, especially given Tejashwi Yadav’s ambitions, is reluctant to hand him the Chief Minister’s post. In such a situation, if Nitish Kumar, who is going to the Rajya Sabha, succeeds in securing a prominent position for his son Nishant Kumar in the upcoming Bihar government, it would be no small undertaking.
On one hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has so far failed to elect a Chief Minister from its party in Bihar, is exerting various pressures on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to appoint a Chief Minister from its party. On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav, who had used all sorts of tricks to become Chief Minister during Nitish Kumar’s remaining tenure when Nitish Kumar broke away from the BJP and joined the Grand Alliance for the second time, is also seeking to fulfill his ambition of occupying the Chief Minister’s chair by exerting pressure on Nitish Kumar.
But Nitish Kumar is also a skilled player in politics. He is adept at extracting benefits for himself and his party without saying much. Therefore, it would be a grave mistake to believe that Nitish Kumar is not planning to reap any significant benefits from this turnaround, and is forced to watch the spectacle with regret.
If we examine whether Nitish Kumar’s flip-flop is a compulsion to remain in the NDA camp or a search for opportunity, it’s clear that Nitish Kumar still has the option of joining the opposition in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly. Considering the current strength of the opposition in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, the Grand Alliance currently holds 35 seats. If we add the five MLAs of the AIMIM and the 85 MLAs of the Janata Dal (United), the total number of MLAs in the opposition alliance would reach 125, three more than the magic number of 122 required to form a government in the Bihar Assembly. As the leader of the largest party in this opposition alliance, Nitish Kumar appears poised to become the Chief Minister. However, in addition to Tejashwi Yadav’s ambition to become Chief Minister, the Congress’s ambition is no less. The arrogance between these two parties was clearly evident in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. First, Congress was reluctant to declare Tejashwi as the leader of the Grand Alliance for a long time, and when it did so under compulsion, it even led to friendly conflicts between Congress and other parties in the Grand Alliance. In such a situation, when there was such a huge uproar within the Grand Alliance over the name of the alliance leader, it is unimaginable that Nitish Kumar could easily become the Chief Minister within this alliance.
This is a major reason for Nitish Kumar’s compulsion to remain with the NDA despite his various vacillations, and it is because of this that Nitish Kumar is currently not considering this option of an opposition alliance.
Regarding the possibility of the BJP becoming the Chief Minister of Bihar after a long time, there is no problem with the majority. The NDA is running the government in Bihar under the leadership of Nitish Kumar with 202 seats, well above the magic number of 122 required for a majority.
To ensure a BJP Chief Minister in Bihar, Amit Shah, known as the BJP’s electoral Chanakya, had already staked his claim that the next Chief Minister of Bihar would be from the BJP camp by stating during the election campaign that the Chief Minister would be selected by the legislative party leader. Furthermore, during the election campaign in Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary’s constituency, he appealed to voters to elect Samrat Chaudhary, promising him a big leader. In other words, he had indirectly hinted at the possibility of Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary becoming the next Chief Minister of Bihar.
However, Nitish Kumar, by remaining silent and pressuring his party leaders to make a statement during the election campaign, defeated the BJP’s electoral Chanakya Amit Shah by making a statement about his own Chief Ministership instead of the BJP’s Chief Ministership. After the election, he himself became Chief Minister after the election secured a majority. Even his Chief Ministership proposal was presented to Amit Shah by Samrat Chaudhary, the BJP’s supposed future Chief Minister of Bihar. Even after being defeated, Home Minister Amit Shah did not remain silent and from within he dug the ground beneath Nitish Kumar’s Chief Minister’s chair to such an extent that Nitish Kumar himself announced his intention to enter the Rajya Sabha.
Extensive preparations have been made to boost the morale of BJP leaders, both in central and Bihar politics, and to break the morale of JDU leaders, including Nitish Kumar. First, as soon as Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister, two Deputy Chief Ministers were appointed, Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Singh, to keep him in check. Subsequently, the BJP retained key ministries such as the Home Department, Urban Development Department, Revenue and Land Reforms Department, Roads and Construction Department, Health, Mining, Agriculture, and Industry, making Nitish Kumar a parrot Chief Minister. Subsequently, the BJP activated BJP leaders by appointing Nitin Naveen, a former Bihar government minister and five-time MLA, as the National President of the BJP. It is worth noting that the BJP’s strategy behind appointing Nitin Naveen as the National President of the BJP is to ensure that if Nitish Kumar attempts to form a government in Bihar with an opposition alliance or attempts to destabilize the central government by withdrawing his support from the central government, Nitin Naveen can leverage his presence in Bihar to split the JDU MPs and MLAs.
Amidst all these developments, Nitish Kumar may appear increasingly helpless, but he is also secretly maneuvering to maintain his dominance. To ensure that JDU leaders remain demoralized, they believe that Nitish Kumar remains with them in Bihar in the form of his son Nishant Kumar, even after his Rajya Sabha election. This is why Nitish Kumar has begun advancing his strategy by inducting his son Nishant Kumar into the JDU. Initially, marginalized JDU leader RP Singh demanded that Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant Kumar be appointed Chief Minister after Nitish Kumar resigned as Chief Minister to run for the Rajya Sabha. Subsequently, he launched a campaign from party offices to social media, demanding that Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant Kumar be appointed Chief Minister by the NDA after Nitish Kumar’s resignation.
To exert additional pressure on the BJP and boost the JDU’s popularity, Nitish Kumar announced the start of his unfinished Bihar Samruddhi Yatra. He intended to enhance his stature by completing this phase of the Samruddhi Yatra alone. However, the BJP, sensing his move, partnered him with Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, who is likely to inherit the Chief Minister’s post after Chief Minister Nitish Kumar resigns. This position appears to be supported by the NDA instead of pursuing the interests of the JDU and the JD(U) alone.
Overall, in the current political climate of Bihar, Nitish Kumar will undoubtedly make a U-turn, but this time, his U-turn will remain within the NDA. Amid these developments, it is interesting to see whether Nitish Kumar can successfully secure an important position in Bihar politics, including the position of Chief Minister. This is significant because, while expressing his views on the Rajya Sabha, he had stated on social media that he would remain connected to the Bihar government even after his election to the Rajya Sabha. This can only happen if his son becomes the Chief Minister of Bihar. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see which BJP MLA he would prefer to see occupy the Chief Minister’s chair, if this doesn’t happen, and with this support, he will be able to maintain his connection to Bihar politics and secure at least the position of Deputy Chief Minister for his son, Nishant Kumar. Nitish Kumar will also attempt to ensure that only Nishant Kumar is appointed Deputy Chief Minister, allowing him to exert his influence over the JDU and the BJP. Only time will tell whether Nitish Kumar’s cunning style will yield a breakthrough, or whether the duo of PM Modi and Amit Shah will succeed in controlling Nitish Kumar and becoming the BJP’s Chief Minister in Bihar, further enhancing their stature in Bihar based on their Hindutva image.