Due to Mamata Banerjee’s government’s lack of cooperation with the Election Commission’s intensive voter revision program in West Bengal, the matter reached the Supreme Court, which even ruled that elections in West Bengal would not be held without the completion of the intensive voter revision. Furthermore, the Election Commission directed the Calcutta High Court to assist the Election Commission in resolving pending cases with its various judicial officers, and if a shortage of officers still persists, it should be compensated by seeking assistance from various courts in Jharkhand and Odisha. Following this Supreme Court decision, the situation seemed to be such that the West Bengal elections would be postponed and President’s rule would be imposed. The intensive voter revision (SIR) program in West Bengal is still not complete, yet the Election Commission has already set the election dates. Under this, voting in West Bengal will be held in two phases. Voters will cast their ballots in the first phase on April 23rd, and in the second phase on April 29th. The counting of votes will take place on May 4th.
Despite the strong possibility that the Narendra Modi government at the center might postpone the elections in West Bengal with the help of the Election Commission over the SIR issue, imposing President’s rule to benefit the BJP, the Election Commission’s announcement of elections in West Bengal without completing the SIR process clearly indicates a major BJP game plan.
To ensure that the BJP’s game plan is not thwarted and the Supreme Court does not obstruct it, the Election Commission initially published the final list of voters under SIR on February 28th. However, a judicial decision on the names of approximately 6 million people is still pending. The Election Commission then claimed that the names of all valid voters would be included until one day before the polling date. The process of doing so is progressing rapidly. The Election Commission has claimed that no valid voter will be deprived of the right to vote in the West Bengal elections, nor will any invalid voter be granted this right through unfair means.
Now let’s understand the BJP’s game plan in detail. This BJP game plan relies on two important factors: the first being the Assembly elections and the second being the Lok Sabha elections to be held in 2029. Let’s talk about the Assembly elections first. The BJP’s electoral navigators, Modi and Shah, are now firmly convinced that they will not win the West Bengal elections. A recent survey in West Bengal also hinted at this: while the BJP is expected to win more seats than previously anticipated, the key to power remains with Mamata Banerjee, and that too with an absolute majority and a wide margin. Also, amid the election process, Mamata Banerjee, citing a Supreme Court order, has announced a 25% monthly payment to state government employees, local body employees, and secretariat employees, citing a Supreme Court order. Furthermore, Mamata Banerjee has announced a monthly payment of ₹2,000 to clerics and pundits to woo both Hindu and Muslim voters. The Modi-Shah duo understands how Nitish Kumar’s mere ₹5,000 donation to women’s self-help groups in Bihar was a significant factor in the NDA’s victory, and this is likely a major reason why they have quickly realized they are in no position to win the elections and form a government in West Bengal. Therefore, instead of expending much of their energy on West Bengal, where the Modi-Shah duo has been unsuccessfully attempting to form a government for the past three elections, they see it as beneficial to focus their full efforts on southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has never been successful in forming a government.
This time, the circumstances in the Tamil Nadu elections are quite favorable for the BJP. Firstly, it has formed an alliance with the AIADMK, a major political party there, which is considered a rival to the DMK. Second, it has a charismatic leader in the form of Annamalai, who has the potential to attract a large number of voters to the BJP through his actions. Furthermore, the BJP is also negotiating to woo Vijay, a popular actor and politician. The anti-incumbency factor of the DMK’s Stalin-led government is also playing a role there. If Modi and Shah implement some central government schemes there and highlight the strengths of their alliance, it is quite possible that the BJP could form a coalition government in Tamil Nadu, if not its own, this time.
Now, let’s talk about the Kerala Assembly elections, where voting is scheduled for April 9th. So far, the BJP has not been successful in electing even a single MLA. In such a situation, if instead of focusing exclusively on West Bengal, they focus more on Kerala, and, considering local issues as well as central support, take advantage of the anti-incumbency of the current Kerala Chief Ministerial government led by Pinarayi Vijayan, and succeed in becoming the main opposition political party, it will prove to be a major achievement for Modi and Shah.
Now let’s talk about the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. If the Election Commission postpones the elections on the SIR issue, imposes President’s rule in West Bengal, and holds the Assembly elections later, this Modi-Shah duo would have given Mamata Banerjee a 36-figure advantage and would prove to be a major obstacle to the implementation of their policies in the future. However, even now, as Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee does not implement many centrally sponsored schemes in West Bengal. But when Mamata Banerjee left the Congress, she was also in alliance with the BJP. Not only was she in the alliance, but she also served as a Union Minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government. Instead of directly confronting her, Modi and Shah considered it best to leave her open to winning the elections, as surveys and several factors indicate a victory for Mamata Banerjee’s party, the TMC, and it’s quite possible that internal sources within the BJP may have also hinted at this. A major advantage of Mamata Banerjee winning the West Bengal elections and forming a government in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections would be that the Modi-Shah duo could use her to undermine the Congress within the India Alliance. Even during the formation of the India Alliance, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had already talked about becoming its coordinator. She does not give Rahul Gandhi any importance. In such a situation, if Mamata Banerjee, emboldened by her victory, makes a major move in this matter, along with Akhilesh Yadav, then Congress may even be excluded from the India Alliance, because Rahul Gandhi will never agree to make Mamata Banerjee the coordinator of the India Alliance. And if Congress leaves the India Alliance, then the Bharatiya Janata Party will surely succeed in making the contest in the 2019 elections at least triangular. And if it succeeds in making it multi-cornered through its diplomatic efforts, then the BJP’s victory will be considered certain in any case. It is quite possible that the duo of Modi and Shah are now working on this game plan for the BJP.