Despite winning all five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar, the BJP is in a dilemma.

By winning all five NDA seats in the Rajya Sabha elections in Bihar, the duo of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah has made a significant breakthrough. On the one hand, they successfully secured the victory of their fifth Rajya Sabha candidate, a candidate they would have otherwise been unable to secure on their own, by making inroads into the Congress and RJD, both major constituents of the opposition Grand Alliance. On the other hand, they ousted Nitish Kumar, a powerful leader of their own alliance partner, the JDU, from Bihar politics. Despite the BJP’s failure to secure a Chief Minister in Bihar despite all its efforts, by getting him elected to the Rajya Sabha, paving the way for their party to become the Chief Minister. But despite such a significant victory, the Modi-Shah duo remains in a dilemma.

The dilemma between Modi and Shah isn’t about which BJP leader they will appoint as Chief Minister of Bihar. This is a piece of cake for this duo. Because whoever the Modi-Shah duo chooses as Chief Minister, no matter how politically lame, BJP leaders will be forced to make that person the leader. But the real threat to this duo isn’t from the BJP’s Bihar MLAs, nor from the leaders of other NDA alliance parties. Rather, the biggest threat to this duo remains Nitish Kumar, whom they have removed from Bihar politics by nominating him and getting him elected to the Rajya Sabha. However, Nitish Kumar, who will soon be forced to leave Bihar politics and go to the Rajya Sabha, is still giving Modi and Shah sleepless nights by maneuvering in Bihar.

After Nitish Kumar’s election to the Rajya Sabha, the political playing field in Bihar is not as flat as it appears for the Bharatiya Janata Party to have its own Chief Minister. Nitish Kumar is digging holes everywhere in this field so that the BJP falls into one of them, and he can maintain his dominance in Bihar politics even while outside Bihar. And this isn’t a mere paper estimate. When Nitish Kumar’s Rajya Sabha membership first became a topic of discussion, he tweeted about it. Through this tweet, he informed his party leaders, NDA constituents, and the people of Bihar that while he was going to the Rajya Sabha to fulfill his desire, he would remain in Bihar politics for their sake.

Although doubts are being expressed about Nitish Kumar’s health, he is not so ill that the BJP’s leaders cannot discern the Modi-Shah duo’s moves and their own ills. The Modi-Shah duo did not bring Nitish Kumar to the Rajya Sabha with the hope that they would hand him the Prime Minister’s chair, a desire they have held for years, for which they have repeatedly broken and rejoined the NDA. Nitish Kumar is also well aware that the Modi-Shah duo, by bringing him into the Rajya Sabha and excluding him from Bihar, are eagerly waiting for an opportunity to siphon off all the political gains he has made by aligning with the backward, extremely backward, Muslim, and women sections of Bihar in his absence.

Women constitute 48% of Bihar’s total population, on which Nitish Kumar may have a slight advantage but BJP’s influence due to schemes like Modi’s Ujjwala Gas Scheme is also there . However, if we evaluate Nitish Kumar’s political assets, ignoring the over all woman population, Nitish Kumar holds approximately 20% of Bihar’s population in the form of Dalits and Mahadalits, along with 7% of the Koeri and Kurmi population. Nitish Kumar also holds sway over a large portion of the Muslims, who constitute 18% of Bihar’s total population. Nitish Kumar also has a higher-than-average hold on several other castes. Nitish Kumar currently maintains a strong hold on the upper castes, who constitute 19% of Bihar’s population who are currently upset with the BJP over the new UGC regulations, as upper caste voters are unlikely to vote for the RJD or Congress. Overall, Nitish Kumar currently holds a 64% demographic share in Bihar’s politics. This wealth has enabled Nitish Kumar to remain at the centre of power in Bihar for 20 years. Now, with his departure for the Rajya Sabha, even if the Modi-Shah duo forms a government in Bihar under the leadership of their BJP party, Nitish Kumar will be able to exert pressure on this government and get the Modi-Shah duo to accomplish even the most significant tasks for him.

The Modi-Shah duo will not let Nitish Kumar rest in peace until they succeed in seizing his political assets in Bihar. The Modi-Shah duo is well aware of this. That’s why they’ve maintained silence on the issue of their party’s Chief Ministerial candidate in Bihar, constantly shifting tactics, with various confidants proposing names like Samrat Choudhary, Nityanand Rai, and Vijay Kumar Sinha as the frontrunners. But believe me, the Modi-Shah duo is not going to make any of them Chief Minister. Because none of them possesses the potential to usurp Nitish Kumar’s political assets and establish BJP dominance in Bihar. I’ll discuss the person the Modi-Shah duo desires to appoint as Chief Minister of Bihar, and whom they are keeping out of the spotlight, in the next article.

For now, let’s discuss Nitish Kumar’s actions, which he is taking to force the Modi-Shah duo to keep their plans to themselves.

As soon as the Modi-Shah duo, at their behest, got Samrat Choudhary’s name proposed for the post of Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar immediately seized it. Nitish Kumar didn’t just pick Samrat Choudhary’s name because he was once in the JDU, as when he joined the JDU, the Chief Minister of Bihar was from the JDU, but that person wasn’t Nitish Kumar, but Jitan Ram Manjhi, who had by then become his arch-rival. Nitish Kumar chose Samrat Choudhary as the Chief Minister because he is aware of how opportunistic he is. Given the opportunity, he could join any party, including the RJD, the JDU, or the BJP, to further his interests. Furthermore, the Koeri community, to which he belongs, comprises just over 4% of the population in Bihar. And currently, a powerful leader like Upendra Kushwaha holds a much greater sway than Samrat Chaudhary. Nitish Kumar personally holds sway over a large segment of the Koeri and Kurmi communities, which together constitute a 7% share. Consequently, the BJP cannot make a significant dent in his 64% political stake with the help of Samrat Chaudhary. If unable to do so, he will be able to leverage this power to force the Modi-Shah duo to perform to his tune. This is why Nitish Kumar has begun accelerating his efforts to make Samrat Chaudhary the Chief Minister of Bihar from the BJP camp. During his Samriddhi Yatra in Jamui, he emphatically placed his hand on Samrat Chaudhary’s shoulder, in the presence of the JDU, BJP, other NDA alliance partners, and the general public, and declared from a packed stage, “Now he will do my work in Bihar.” He then appealed to everyone to help him become the next Chief Minister of Bihar, but also secured their approval. Now you must have understood what work Nitish Kumar will get done through Samrat Chaudhary in Bihar, and if you haven’t understood then later when Nitish Kumar, even while being in Rajya Sabha, will use Samrat Chaudhary to play his tricks and give a tough time to the Modi-Shah duo, then you will come to know everything. Anyway, Nitish Kumar will remain the Chief Minister of Bihar at least till April 9, by then it is possible that he will dig so many holes in the political field of Bihar that the Modi-Shah duo will be afraid to even land their political helicopter here and if they try to do something against Nitish Kumar by forcibly landing it, then they will get stuck in one of the pits created by him, the political benefit of which Nitish Kumar can take from outside Bihar even while being in Rajya Sabha.